Welcome to EVmodcast!

This site is a ramshackle put-together by a statistics student/amateur/hobbyist based in London and Singapore. I hope to contribute a modest quantum of clarity to the 2012 presidential horse race, by allowing visitors a direct comparison of the popular poll-based Electoral Vote models of Nate Silver, Simon Jackman, and Sam Wang. Do visit the FAQ page for why this is necessary.

The site is dominated by the ModelTracker at the top of the page, which adds data points for the day’s three aggregates. The tracker begins on Mon 17 Sep 2012, except for FiveThirtyEight which begins on 26 Sep due to data error. In addition, I post daily ModelSnapshots which display what the respective EV distributions actually look like, along with how their median, 5th and 95th percentiles are likely to translate into the Electoral College.

Click on any of the ModelSnapshots below for magnified views.
FiveThirtyEight:

HuffPost Pollster:

Princeton Election Consortium:

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